Tipster Picks

Welcome to Tipster Picks!

We all need a bit of help sometimes, and our tipping trio are always on hand to share their wisdom on our games. They are:

  • The MailmanBetter service than De Bruyne
  • The TeacherGiving lessons on a weekly
  • Incognito ProThe best spy since Bielsa

Will you follow their advice, or go your own way?


Ahead of the Football Survivor and Big5 action this March 17-19 weekend, the tipsters have been mining the data once again:

The Mailman says…

  • My pick: Crystal Palace haven’t recorded a win in eleven matches in all competitions. Furthermore, the faltering Eagles were unable to record a single shot on target in their recent games against Liverpool, Aston Villa, and Manchester City. Take that level of efficiency to Arsenal at the Emirates, and you’ll get beaten comfortably. Wilfried Zaha is back, but assume that won’t be enough against a Gunners outfit gunning for the title.
  • Potential pick: A trip to Brentford in the Premier League doesn’t usually end too well in the away dressing room. The Bees’ home record has them sixth in the away standings, level on points with Newcastle and four shy of Spurs, United and Liverpool, winning 7/13. Considering only two sides (Forest and Bournemouth) have conceded more than Leicester’s 29 goals on the road, it may be wise to overlook the visitors’ chances here.
  • Risky pick: Everton will be buoyed by their 1-0 win at home to Brentford. However, they now face a Chelsea side who may just be clicking into gear after Champions League progression and two Premier League victories either side of the Dortmund triumph. The underlying xG metrics suggest Chelsea were never too far away, underperforming their xG totals in 16/20 of Graham Potter’s Premier League matches. If this talented bunch can continue finding the net, then the sky is the limit.

The Teacher says…

  • My pick: Arsenal – 10 wins from 13 at the Emirates – were impressive in dismissing Fulham last weekend and it’s hard to see Palace causing them too many problems. The Eagles are yet to win in 2023, scoring just five goals in their 11 matches (writing before their midweek game at Brighton). Patrick Vieira’s side have just two away wins so far this season with nine goals suggesting they will struggle to make an impact.
  • Potential pick: Brentford have been beaten only once on home soil to lay a solid foundation for potential European football next season. Leicester’s ropey run has them very much in the relegation dogfight – they enter the weekend outside the drop zone only on goal difference – and defensively they are a concern away from home.
  • Risky pick: Spurs have won on just one of their last six visits to Southampton and the potential reward for backing them here looks too small. OK, Southampton finished last weekend bottom of the table but their goalless draw at Manchester United meant they had taken seven points from the previous 12 available. It’s unlikely to be easy for the visitors, who have lost at lowly Leicester and Wolves in recent weeks.

Incognito Pro says…

  • My pick: Crystal Palace are down with the strugglers in terms of xG away from home (just 12.24xG from 13 games), and they will likely find it hard away at the league leaders. Arsenal are in European action on Thursday but should have enough squad depth to come through.
  • Potential pick: Southampton sit bottom of the table for home form this season, and you don’t particularly want to come up against Harry Kane and co. when you haven’t scored more than once at home since August 30. Spurs may be unpredictable, but they are in the top 6 for away form this term and still have a big target of the top four.
  • Risky pick: “Wolves have been steadily improving under Julen Lopetegui, taking three wins and a draw from their last seven PL matches. Leeds by contrast have one win since November 12, and can’t reliably be backed here.

Good luck!